"Bovine Tuberculosis in the African Buffalo:
The Role of Population Models"

Wayne M. Getz, Paul C. Cross, Anna E. Jolles, James O. Lloyd-Smith, Sadie J. Ryan, Peter W. J. Baxter, Justine Bowers, Craig T. Hay, Christiane Knechtel, Craig J. Tambling, Wendy C. Turner and J. T. du Toit

The spread of bovine tuberculosis (M. bovis, also BTB) in wild populations of African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) can be modeled at various levels of complexity, including components, that inter alia deal with: basic and refined demographic and epidemiological processes; behavior as it relates to herd organization and the movement patterns of individuals among herds; ecological factors that focus on buffalo-vegetation, buffalo-lion, and buffalo-other grazer interactions; environmental effects, particularly the influence of rainfall and the distribution of water; BTB reservoirs in other species, as well as BTB transmission between buffalo and other species, including domestic cattle and humans; and finally, the effects of various management actions in controlling BTB in natural populations. To avoid getting embroiled in details, models should only contain sufficient complexity to answer the question at hand. Here we evaluate the form and utility of various modeling components in addressing different kinds of basic and applied questions regarding the spread of BTB in populations typified by herds in the Kruger National Park, the Hluhluwe-Umfolozi Provincial Game Park, and the Klaserie Private Game Reserve, all in South Africa.